William Fitzpatrick
Data, Analytics, Migration
October 2, 2023
Since COVID-19, the world has experienced significant changes – including population migration patterns within the United States.
Causeway Solutions has access to a comprehensive national voter file containing publicly available information for every registered voter. We have a unique opportunity to explore and analyze internal migration trends. In this blog post, we delve into the impact of the pandemic on internal U.S. migration and how our data analytics capabilities power targeted voter outreach.
The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a series of unprecedented events, leading to shifts in population movement across the nation.
The pandemic’s impact on internal migration can be attributed to various factors. With the rise of remote work and lockdowns in urban areas, many individuals and families sought different living environments that better aligned with their changing needs. This led to both short-term and long-term relocations, affecting states and regions differently.
1. Urban Exodus: New trend of individuals and families leaving densely populated urban centers in search of more spacious and affordable housing options. This migration had significant implications for voter demographics and political landscapes in both urban and suburban areas.
2. Shifts in Swing States: Some states experienced notable shifts in their voter demographics due to internal migration. As people moved, voting patterns changed, potentially impacting future elections and political strategies.
3. Implications for Voter Turnout: Internal migration poses challenges for maintaining accurate voter information and predicting voter turnout. Our data analytics capabilities help address these challenges by keeping voter data up-to-date and identifying potential target audiences.
| Top Ten States and Population Gains | (2020-2022 U.S. Census Bureau) |
|---|---|
| Florida | 318,855 |
| Texas | 230,961 |
| North Carolina | 99,796 |
| South Carolina | 84,030 |
| Tennessee | 81,646 |
| Georgia | 81,406 |
| Arizona | 70,984 |
| Idaho | 28,639 |
| Alabama | 28,609 |
| Oklahoma | 26,791 |
| Bottom 10 States and Population Losses | |
|---|---|
| Minnesota | -19,400 |
| Virginia | -23,952 |
| Pennsylvania | -39,957 |
| Maryland | -45,101 |
| Louisiana | -46,672 |
| Massachusetts | -57,292 |
| New Jersey | -64,231 |
| Illinois | -141,656 |
| New York | -299,557 |
| California | -343,230 |
Further analysis shows even more interesting information, such as where they came from. Using Florida as an example, 52,287 people moved from NY to Florida followed by New Jersey, Illinois, and Pennsylvania. People new to Texas were most likely to come from California at 38,834 followed by Florida at 13,107. North Carolina had their biggest gains from Florida, Virginia and New York.
For the states that lost population, the highest migration from California was to Texas, Nevada, and Washington. New Yorkers went to Florida by far (52,287), followed by New Jersey, North Carolina, and Connecticut. Illinois residents were most likely to move to Florida followed by Indiana and Texas.
From a political perspective, people tended to migrate to states with the same political leaning. For example, all the people who moved to Florida, except for those from DC, leaned Republican. We saw this in other states as well where Republican-leaning voters move to red states while Democratic-leaning voters move to other blue states.
At Causeway Solutions, we harness the power of big data to help organizations make informed decisions. With our national voter file and advanced analytics tools, we can help political campaigns, advocacy groups, and other entities identify and target voters who have recently moved.
People moving across the U.S. are creating both challenges and opportunities for political campaigns and advocacy groups. With our access to a comprehensive national voter file and advanced data analytics capabilities, Causeway Solutions is well-equipped to help identify and target voters who have moved over the past few years. By understanding and leveraging these migration trends, organizations can better engage with voters and advocate for policies that align with their evolving needs.
Contact us today to learn how we can help you with data-driven decisions and impactful outreach strategies. Together, we can navigate the complexities of post-pandemic internal migration and shape the future of voter engagement.
To learn more, visit Causeway Solutions to get started!